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The pricing model

How are calculated prices day after day ? Let’s consider for example the cocaine.
Its price is 15,000 + Random(15,000), with that value multiplied by 5 if cocaine prices soar. (source : the author himself)
Assuming the other dopes follow the same model, and from our large experience, here are ranges of prices for each one.

How much for each item ?

Item	Normal variation		Exceptionnal variation
Acid	1 000	4 500	100	450
Cocaine	15 000	30 000	75 000	150 000
Hashish	450	1 500	45	150
Heroin	5 000	14 000	25 000	70 000
Ecstasy	10	60	1	6
Smack	1 500	4 500
Opium	500	1 300	2 500	6 500
Crack	1 000	3 500
Peyote	100	700
Shrooms	600	1 400
Speed	70	250	350	1 250
Weed	300	900	30	90

The following prices are less accurate, since they occur much less often.

Gun	300	550
Trenchcoat	200	350
Number of pockets	10	20
Money found on dead cop	1 000	3 500
Doctor fee	1 000	2 000

How often do special stuff occur ?

The following stats were made after a lot (I do mean a lot) of games. Therefore, they are not very accurate, but they reveal how often an event occurs compared to another one.

Number of goods

According to Pr Schmurtzstein theroy, the number of goods that are tradable each day is a random number between, say, 6 and 12, and then items are picked (Pr Dopenstein’s theory claims that each item has its own appearance frequency, but this remains to be proven).
So what is the probability to have a given number of dopes on the market ?

Number of goods	Probability
6	0.4%
8	3.4%
9	13.2%
10	31.1%
11	31.9%
12	20.0%

Frequency of exceptionnal prices

Each day, the probability that an exceptionnal price shows up is around 37.0% (so I am thinking about a third)

Given the fact that there will be an exceptionnal price, what item will be concerned ?

Item	Probability
Acid	8,0%
Cocaine	6,9%
Ecstasy	17,2%
Hashich	20,7%
Heroin	10,3%
Opium	13,8%
Speed	12,6%
Weed	10,3%

So, every day, what is the probability that an exceptionnal price show up ?

Item	Probability
Acid	3.0%
Cocaine	2.6%
Ecstasy	6.4%
Hashish	7.7%
Heroin	3.8%
Opium	5.1%
Speed	4.7%
Weed	3.8%

Meeting Officer Hardass and his deputies

The probability that you meet the cops is around 11,5%

Special events

Each day, the probability that a special event occurs is around 7.7%

Given the fact that there will be a special event, which one will occur ?

Event	Probability
Police dogs chase you	5.6%
You find stuff on a corpse	11.1%
A friend gives you stuff	5.6%
You buy a gun !	16.7%
You get mugged	16.7%
You buy a trenchcoat !	44.4%

So every day, probability that a particular event occurs is around :

Event	Probability
Police dogs chase you	0.4%
You find stuff on a corpse	0.9%
A friend gives you stuff	0.4%
You buy a gun !	1.3%
You get mugged	1.3%
You buy a trenchcoat !	3.4%

Do you have too much spare time ?

The probability that you think “this girl just has nothing better to do in life ??” is around 99.9%. :)

Dope Wars is a game. I like the game. I DO NOT support dealing, using or doing anything in Real Life™ with drugs. And I DO mean it. Don’t even think about contacting me about anything related to drugs if it’s not part of Dope Wars.

Read also : Dopewars : Strategy, Tips and Tricks